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Binance Resea
2026-09-13 00:38:14

Binance Research says AI trade is rotating from semiconductors to software and capital markets

Binance Research says the AI trade is no longer centered only on semiconductors and hardware. In its latest report, the firm argues that the market has started rotating toward software, capital markets and other second-order beneficiaries as the economics of model usage, infrastructure spending and revenue realization change. The report says the push to maximize token consumption effectively ended in the second quarter of 2026. Enterprises are paying closer attention to token efficiency per task as AI agents spread, while open-weight models have gained share because they offer roughly 90% of the capability of closed models at about one-sixth of the cost per call. Binance Research cited OpenRouter data showing weekly token volume at 137 trillion in early September 2026, around 20 times the level seen at the start of the year. At the same time, capital spending by the five largest U.S. cloud operators has climbed to around 105% of operating cash flow in 2026, up from 41% in 2023, pushing combined free cash flow into negative territory. The report argues that equity markets are now rewarding spending that clearly converts into AI revenue growth and penalizing spending that does not. It also says market leadership is broadening in 2026, with Binance users cutting concentrated semiconductor exposure and reallocating more capital toward software and capital markets names.

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Binance Research says AI trade is rotating from semiconductors to software and capital markets
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